Overview

The State of the Climate: New Jersey report annually summarizes updated scientific information on climate trends and projections that can be used by state and local decision-makers, researchers, hazard planning and climate resilience professionals, and residents. The State of the Climate: New Jersey report is developed by Rutgers University
through its hosting of the New Jersey Climate Change Resource Center. The report provides end users with the information they need to monitor changing climate conditions to prepare for future impacts. For prior reports in this series visit https://njclimateresourcecenter.rutgers.edu/resources/state-of-the-climate-new-jersey/

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Summary

The year 2024 was the warmest on record globally and the second warmest year on record in New Jersey. This year represented a continuation of the long-term climate change trend in global temperatures that drives regional effects and hazards in New Jersey. As such, this report focuses on changes in temperature, sea-level rise, precipitation, and extreme events in New Jersey:

• Temperature – Like most locations globally, New Jersey has seen increases in annual and seasonal temperatures in recent decades. New Jersey’s annual temperatures have risen by approximately 4 °F since 1900, roughly twice the global (over land and ocean surface) average and about 1.1 times the global over land average. This warming trend is expected to continue with further climate change, leading to increased heat-stress-related health conditions, especially among vulnerable populations; more widespread damage to built infrastructure such as roads and electrical wires; and exacerbation of conditions contributing to wildfires. By 2100, the annual average temperature in New Jersey is projected to be 3.7–6.2 °F above the 1991–2020 normal with moderate greenhouse gas emissions or 5.8–8.6 °F above normal with high greenhouse gas emissions.
• Sea-level rise – Sea level has been perennially increasing along the New Jersey coastline at about 0.17 inches/yr (~18.9 inches since the early 1900s) due to global sea-level rise, land subsidence, and other processes that affect the local sea level such as changes in ocean circulation. Heightened sea levels exacerbate flooding during coastal storms or very high tides and can salinate freshwater ecosystems and resources. Future sea level projections for New Jersey have been reported by a Rutgers-led Science and Technical Advisory Panel (STAP) in 2016 and updated by a second STAP that had been engaged at the request of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection resulting in a 2019 report. Future sea level projections from the 2019 STAP report engaged at the request of the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection found that relative to the 1991–2009 mean sea level and late 19th century temperatures, sea level by 2100 in New Jersey will likely rise 1.7–3.9 ft with 2°C of global warming and 2.0–5.1 ft with 3.5°C of global warming. The New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection has once again engaged Rutgers to convene another Science and Technical Advisory Panel to update the 2019 report. This update is anticipated to be completed later in 2025 with updated sea-level rise projections for New Jersey. Until the release of the updated 2025 projections, this report refers to the projections from 2019. State of the Climate: New Jersey 2024
• Precipitation – The total annual rainfall within the state has increased by ~7% since the early 1900s, with the most intense events generating more rainfall compared to historical episodes. Future conditions project an increase in total annual rainfall of about 3–13% by the end of the century using the moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, and extreme 24-hour rainfall is projected to increase about 5–15%. In addition to contributing to increases in rainfall, rising temperatures also increase water demand and evaporation, increasing the likelihood of dry soil conditions.
• Extreme events – In September 2024, Hurricane Helene brought extreme rainfall to southern Appalachia (as much as 30 inches of rain in western North Carolina over four days) that caused extensive flooding, property damage, and deaths within the region. It is expected that warmer global temperatures will exacerbate hurricanes, allowing them to become more intense, decay more slowly, and bring more intense rainfall. These events are not confined to southern Appalachia, and New Jersey has been subject to numerous extreme rainfall events, both inland and coastal, associated with tropical cyclones across its recorded climatological history. The conditions that made Helene so damaging further south can also occur in New Jersey, with Helene being a harbinger of what may be experienced more frequently in the future.

Citation

Davies, K., Shope, J., Broccoli, A., Gerbush, M., Kaplan, M., Robinson, D., Nikolopoulos, E., Araujo, D., Kopp, R., Herb, J. & Spector, A. 2025. State of the Climate: New Jersey 2024. Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ.