DNV completed the New Jersey Non-Residential Lighting Market Characterization on behalf of the Rutgers Center for Green Building (Rutgers), and the New Jersey Board of Public Utilities (NJBPU). The primary objective of this study was to assess the status of the C&I lighting market in New Jersey. The key output as part of this effort was a set of recommended lighting adjusted measure lives (AMLs) for use in calculating gross lifetime savings. The key focus of this effort was on understanding the linear submarket since it represents the highest opportunity to generate program savings and accounts for the majority of lighting installations; however, DNV also collected qualitative information on the high/low bay submarket and the exterior/outdoor submarket to help inform AMLs for those lighting applications.
To estimate the future baselines required in the AML calculations, DNV completed in-depth interviews with 16 lighting distributors in New Jersey to estimate the trajectory of market share in New Jersey. DNV extrapolated these estimates and leveraged additional assumptions about the New Jersey market to convert a customized AML calculator with New Jersey specific inputs. Lighting distributors indicated that the New Jersey market is already experiencing high rates of LED adoption. Distributors estimated that LEDs already make up about 90% of total sales, and that is expected to continue to grow largely due to demand for LED luminaires. Absent, the program, LEDs would make up a smaller portion of total sales; however, LEDs would still make up approximately about 87% of total sales.