Forecast of April 2010 New Jersey
Publication Year: 2010

Forecast of April 2010 New Jersey: The Future Looks Brighter, but We Still Need More Jobs!


Mantell, N.H., Lahr, M.L. (2010). Forecast of April 2010 New Jersey: The Future Looks Brighter, but We Still Need More Jobs! Rutgers Economic Advisory Service. Center for Urban Policy Research at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.

New Jersey’s recession began in January 2008, a month after it started in the U.S. New Jersey lost 242,900 jobs between January 2008 and January 2010, or 5.9 percent of its peak employment base. Job losses occurred in every month except October 2009 when there was a gain of 1,500 jobs. Preliminary estimates for February 2010 indicate that the job base increased by 3,700—this is hopefully the beginning of the turn-around that we expect this year. During the first year of the recession New Jersey’s job base declined more than the nation’s (-2.9 percent compared to -2.6 percent); however, since the beginning of 2009, the state’s pace of job loss has been slower than the na- tion’s (-2.6 percent compared to -3.0 percent). Over the course of the recession, New Jersey has accounted for2.9 percent of the national job loss—very slightly less than the 3.0 percent that could be expected based on its share of the national job base However, New Jersey has now lost twice as many jobs as it gained during the expansion of mid-2002 to 2007, while the U.S. job base has now fallen so that it is 0.2 percent below its 2003 low point.Revisions to both U.S. and New Jersey employment data released recently indicate that job losses were more severe throughout the past two years than was shown in the unrevised data. The New Jersey unemployment rate has been lower than that in the U.S. through most of the past decade, and the experience during the recession was no excep- tion until this year. Currently the state unemployment rate is slightly above the national rate. There is some indication in the most recent data that both the U.S. and New Jersey rates may have peaked at 10.1 percent for the U.S. and 10 percent for the state at the end of 2009.

Additional Topics
employment | unemployment