The April 2013 R/ECON™ forecast for New Jersey looks for growth in nonagricultural employment of 1.2 percent or 48,600 jobs in 2013, after growth of 1.3 percent or 49,100 jobs in 2012. Most of the increase last year was in the first and last quarters. Hurricane Sandy’s impact was seen, in job terms, as a small loss in November followed by a big gain in December. The above-average growth rates in 2012 and 2013 will slow as the recovery/expansion after the “Great Recession” progresses. Employment growth between 2013 and 2023 will average 0.9 percent or 36,600 jobs per year. The level of jobs will recover to the 2007 peak in mid-2017; by the end of the forecast period the employment base will be 234,000 jobs greater than the peak level of 4,092,200 achieved in January 2008. The U.S. is much further along in its recovery than is New Jersey. By February 2013 it had already recouped 5.7 million, or two-thirds, of the 8.7 million jobs lost during the recession. It will begin its job expansion nearly three years earlier—in late 2014. By the end of the
Forecast of April 2013 New Jersey: The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same
Mantell, N.H., Lahr, M.L. (2013). Forecast of April 2011 New Jersey: The More Things Change, the More They Stay the Same. Rutgers Economic Advisory Service. Center for Urban Policy Research at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.