Forecast of April 2015 New Jersey
Publication Year: 2015

Forecast of April 2015 New Jersey: Improvement Seen—is an Expansion in Sight?


Mantell, N.H., Lahr, M.L. (2015). Forecast of April 2015 New Jersey: Improvement Seen—is an Expansion in Sight? Rutgers Economic Advisory Service. Center for Urban Policy Research at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.

The April 2015 R/ECON  forecast shows more rapid growth for the state in 2015 than in 2014. Nonagricultural employment rose by 0.7 percent— or 27,700 jobs in 2014—after growth of 1.2 percent or 45,100 jobs in 2013. Growth will improve to 1.4 percent in 2015 and to 1.5 percent in 2016, and then average 0.9 percent over the rest of the forecast period. At these rates the job base will return to the peak level reached in the first quarter of 2008 in late 2016. By the end of the forecast period in 2025 the employment base will be about 325,000 jobs greater than its level at the peak. 1 These projections assume that no new recession disrupts the state’s or nation’s growth. Unfortunately, this seems rather far-fetched given that the average business cycle (peak to peak) in the U.S. since World War II has lasted about 24 quarters and the current cycle is now in its seventh year.

As of April 2014, the jobs recovery in the U.S. was complete. Nonagricultural employment had regained slightly more than the 8.7 million jobs lost in the recession. The private sector recovery was accomplished a couple of months earlier. By the end of 2025 the nation’s employment base will exceed the peak reached in January 2008 by more than 13 percent. Given its slower recovery and rate of expansion, New Jersey’s share of the nation’s job base will decline slightly from its current 2.83 percent by 2025.

Additional Topics
employment | unemployment