Forecast of December 2002 New Jersey
Publication Year: 2002

Forecast of December 2002 New Jersey: Are We out of the Recession?


Mantell, N.H., Lahr, M.L. (2002). Forecast of December 2002 New Jersey: Are We out of the Recession? Rutgers Economic Advisory Service. Center for Urban Policy Research at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.

Both New Jersey and the United States entered a recession in 2001—the nation in March and New Jersey three months later. Although the end of the recession has not been designated officially, growth in output resumed in the fourth quarter of 2001 and U.S. employment bottomed out in April 2002. In November 2002, employment in the United States was still nearly 1.6 million jobs, or 1.2 percent, below its March 2001 peak. It has risen by less than 200,000 jobs since its low point.

Just as New Jersey entered the recession later than the nation as a whole, employment in the state reached its low point later in the year—in Septem- ber 2002. New Jersey’s recession has been much milder than that of the nation; the state lost only 32,400 jobs, or 0.8 percent of its peak-level employment, and regained a third of them in October 2002. During the forecast period—2002 to 2007—the state will add jobs at an average rate of 1 percent (or 40,600 jobs) a year. That rate is relatively low; it is 10 percent lower than the average annual growth rate during the post–World War II period.

Additional Topics
employment | unemployment