The January 2014 R/ECON forecast shows improving prospects for the state compared to those of last year. It includes growth in nonagricultural employment of 1.6 percent—nearly 63,000 jobs in 2013, after growth of 1.3 percent or 49,100 jobs in 2012. Growth will be moderate over the next three years, at 1.0 percent a year in 2014 and 0.9 percent in 2015 and 2016—for an increase of 175,000 jobs between 2012 and 2016. These growth rates will trend down as the recovery/expansion progresses, so that employment growth between 2013 and 2023 will average 0.8 percent or 32,700 jobs per year. (see table 1.) In the three and a quarter years since the trough of the recession in September 2010 New Jersey has recovered 56 percent of its lost jobs. At its expected rate of growth the state will regain the peak level of 4,092,200 achieved in January 2008 in early 2017— a full year earlier than shown in our last forecast. Most of the improvement has entered the forecast by way of strong employment data at the end of 2013 and improved income growth shown in the major revision of state income data. By the end of the forecast period in 2023 the employment base will about 200,000 jobs greater than at that peak.
Forecast of January 2014 New Jersey’s Economy and Prospects Are Improving
Citation:
Mantell, N.H., Lahr, M.L. (2014). Forecast of January 2014 New Jersey’s Economy and Prospects Are Improving. Rutgers Economic Advisory Service. Center for Urban Policy Research at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy.